In a stronger-than-expected showing yesterday, Milei captured more than 30% support in the ballot to choose who can run for the presidency, against about 28% for the two candidates combined of the pro-business opposition Juntos por el Cambio and 27% for the ruling Peronist coalition.
The fact that Milei individually got more votes than the country’s two main coalitions shows how his attacks on the political establishment are resonating with an electorate frustrated by rampant inflation and a looming recession. His ideas range from scrapping the central bank and replacing the peso with the dollar to legalizing the sale of human organs.
Yet the result is just the first step in what’s a long and uncertain electoral process.
With a three-way race now expected in the Oct. 22 first-round election, a runoff is likely to be needed in November to pick a president. And the fact the three leading political groups captured almost 86% of the combined votes leaves little space to garner new support, making the forecasting of a result more difficult.
In the meantime, the economy threatens to pour even more uncertainty on the race in the weeks until the vote.
The government is running out of options to avoid a currency devaluation, and the $44 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund is also at risk of collapsing, making the job of Sergio Massa, the economy minister who’s a presidential candidate for the Peronists, almost impossible.
One thing is clear: Milei has taken politics in Argentina in a novel direction. — Juan Pablo Spinetto